Published: 21:56 GMT, 16 September 2013 | Updated: 23:12 GMT, 16 September 2013
Should David Cameron lose the next election, it will be because women deserted him. That is the stark finding of a piece of research this week showing the extent to which Mr Cameron now has a problem with women.
Mr Cameron has not always had a problem with women. Three years ago, when the public perception was of a normal ‘kinda’ guy who took his children to school and made it home for bath-time, 36 per cent of women backed the Tories, compared to 31 per cent for Labour.
But a new Ipsos Mori survey for Mumsnet this week showed that only 29 per cent of women support the Tories, compared to a figure for Labour of 42 per cent.
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Youthful promise: David Cameron, pictured with female Tory councillors back in 2006, has turned a five-point lead among female voters into a humiliating slump Almost half of women think Mr Cameron is the most out of touch of the main party leaders. Quite how the Prime Minister has turned a five-point lead among female voters into a humiliating slump is a complex story.
The research suggests women voters are deserting Cameron not only because they think he is out of touch, but also because he is ‘too posh’.
The Old Etonian does not understand the problems facing ordinary families. As one stay-at-home mum called Tanya summed it up: ‘He does b***** all for women like me.’
It is true Mr Cameron has not helped himself with a string of government decisions that have impacted adversely on women.
The curbs on child benefit for higher rate taxpayers distressed mothers even more than fathers, because it is a benefit they felt they controlled. And the way the policy was implemented was abysmal.
The impression given was that Cameron and Osborne didn’t think the payment made any difference, when women on tight budgets know that a few pounds here and there can be crucial.
It is still women who do the shopping in most families and, with food and fuel bills rising, they are not convinced when Mr Cameron tells them the recovery is well under way.
A new Ipsos Mori survey for Mumsnet this week showed that only 29 per cent of women support the Tories, compared to a figure for Labour of 42 per cent Mr Cameron may tell voters he is middle class like them, but women don’t think so.
With access to private wealth, he will never know what it’s like to worry, as they do, about where the next mortgage payment is coming from.
Indeed, it is easy to see how women voters feel alienated by a privileged class of male rulers who don’t understand how frightening it is to have too little cash for the weekly shop.
Perhaps that is what they mean when they say he is too posh.
I don’t think the majority of women in this country are capable of disliking someone just because they have been to Eton.
But women have keen antennae and there is something about Mr Cameron’s manner and that of his circle that puts their hackles up.
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When Labour shadow minister Angela Eagle shouted too loudly at Mr Cameron across the floor of the House, he shouted back: 'Calm down, dear'
It is hard to put a finger on it, but there is a strain of misogyny running through the public schoolboy ethos of this government that merits examination.
Women suspect Mr Cameron belongs to an upper crust and entitled male elite who, because of the years of conditioning in the rarefied world of an all-boys school, don’t in their heart of hearts respect women as equals. This sort of institutionalised misogyny manifests itself in very subtle forms.
It is wrong to say, for example, that Cameron does not promote women, and just as wrong to say he does not enjoy female company. He married a strong woman and has lots of female employees.
But insiders who know him best say he surrounds himself with women of a certain kind and gives them gender-specific roles.
He likes women to be supportive. He has many glamorous and capable female aides who play essentially nurturing roles.
Policy work and heavyweight government lifting is done by men. When women do put their heads above the parapet and weigh in on serious issues, he doesn’t seem to like it at all.
Take what happened to Theresa May when her star was in the ascendancy and she was mooted as a future leader.
Emboldened by her sudden popularity among backbenchers, she tried to act for the grassroots and stand up to Mr Cameron on a series of unpopular policies, including plans for minimum alcohol pricing.
Mr Cameron publicly slapped her down. It was Mrs May’s brief as Home Secretary to have a view on such issues, but the PM made it clear her contribution was surplus to requirements.
Then there are the little jibes, the passing comments that suggest the Prime Minister may not be as keen as his PR machine makes out when it comes to empowering women. When Labour shadow minister Angela Eagle shouted too loudly at him across the floor of the House, he shouted back: ‘Calm down, dear.’
And when Tory MP Nadine Dorries challenged him on the extremely important issue of abortion law, he hit back with the basest of innuendos to belittle her.
When Melissa suggested a certain policy might cause a row, Cameron suddenly erupted into a long rant about how she had completely misunderstood everything if she thought such a row would happen. It did happen ‘I know the honourable lady is extremely frustrated,’ he laughed, amid much hilarity from the other former public schoolboys sitting around him.
This sort of off-the-cuff remark is so damaging because it is in our most unguarded moments that we let slip who we really are.
He sounded like an unreconstructed chauvinist, upsetting not just Nadine Dorries, but the whole female electorate.
Women loathe this sort of patronising attempt to ridicule them back into ‘their place’.
The humour used is indicative of the sniggering, behind-the-hand jokes of that Eton classroom. His petulant anger is that of the spoilt schoolboy, too. I saw a flash of this once when I interviewed him shortly after he became Tory leader.
Melissa has heard other women say that Mr Brown was gallant, even chivalrous to them. But she has heard no such praise, publicly or privately, for Mr Cameron He was relaxed and jovial until I asked him about a specific issue to do with the European Parliament.
When I suggested the policy might cause a row, he suddenly erupted into a long rant about how I had completely misunderstood everything if I thought such a row would happen. It did happen, of course.
When a colleague and I reflected on this strange outburst later, we said he didn’t like women causing trouble. We may have been wrong, of course, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest we were right.
Certainly, Mr Cameron’s social manners do not contrast favourably with other male political leaders I have met, including Gordon Brown.
Mr Brown, despite his reputation as a bully, was always courteous to me. I remember breakfast meetings at Number 11 where he would repeatedly ask me, almost fretfully, if I had everything I wanted — offering to serve me more coffee and so on.
I remember distinctly that on one occasion when I was struggling to get a word in edgeways, he interrupted a male journalist who had been talking for a long time and said: ‘Just a moment, I think Melissa would like to say something.’ I have never forgotten that courtesy.
I have heard other women, too, say that Mr Brown was gallant, even chivalrous to them. But I have heard no such praise, publicly or privately, for Mr Cameron.
His glamorous wife Samantha, who does have extensive social skills, is often seen interceding for him at parties.
She also moves in the sort of glittering circles from which her husband can appoint female tsars to soften his image.
Tamara Mellon, co-founder of the Jimmy Choo shoe empire, Anya Hindmarch, the luxury handbag designer, and many other successful women such as retail guru Mary Portas have been called in to help his government, chipping away at the notion that it is too male, too pin-striped, too public school.
But this could actually be making the situation worse.
The evidence suggests that women suspect such stunts are yet more meaningless PR and window-dressing.
Again, the suspicion is that Cameron simply pays lip service to women. They fear there is something essentially shallow about the Cameron project.
The rise of Ukip’s Nigel Farage and his increasing appeal to women voters illustrates just how much women prefer strength of opinion and even boorish authenticity over meaningless smooth-talking.
Those advisers who have tried to mitigate Mr Cameron’s loss of support with women have urged him to concentrate on saying what he believes, even if he thinks it will be unpopular.
He simply cannot get away with doing a PR job on himself any more.
Women aren’t fools.
Size zero models are more readily associated with carrot sticks and lettuce leaves than freshly buttered toast, but for how long?
The Federation Of Bakers has come up with Eau de Toast, a perfume designed to fight back against the bread-free diets many woman undertake to lose weight. Models at this week’s London Fashion Week have been invited to sashay down the catwalk wearing the scent, which has yeasty top notes and a hint of caramel and malt, though whether any of them will take up the offer remains to be seen.
Nutritionist Amanda Ursell says: ‘Bread is low in calories and packed full of good stuff, such as calcium, zinc, magnesium, protein and B vitamins.’
If the perfume, created by The Aroma Company, proves a hit, perhaps they could add a whiff of Marmite.
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